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New Studies Raise Warming Stakes

CO2 output must cease altogether, studies warn

Research points to years of warming even with ambitious emission cuts

By Juliet Eilperin

updated 1:35 a.m. ET, Mon., March. 10, 2008

The task of cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to avert a dangerous rise in global temperatures may be far more difficult than previous research suggested, say scientists who have just published studies indicating that it would require the world to cease carbon emissions altogether within a matter of decades.

Their findings, published in separate journals over the past few weeks, suggest that both industrialized and developing nations must wean themselves off fossil fuels by as early as mid-century in order to prevent warming that could change precipitation patterns and dry up sources of water worldwide.

Using advanced computer models to factor in deep-sea warming and other aspects of the carbon cycle that naturally creates and removes carbon dioxide (CO2), the scientists, from countries including the United States, Canada and Germany, are delivering a simple message: The world must bring carbon emissions down to near zero to keep temperatures from rising further.

"The question is, what if we don't want the Earth to warm anymore?" asked Carnegie Institution senior scientist Ken Caldeira, co-author of a paper published last week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. "The answer implies a much more radical change to our energy system than people are thinking about."

Emissions continue to rise
Although many nations have been pledging steps to curb emissions for nearly a decade, the world's output of carbon from human activities totals about 10 billion tons a year and has been steadily rising.

For now, at least, a goal of zero emissions appears well beyond the reach of politicians here and abroad. U.S. leaders are just beginning to grapple with setting any mandatory limit on greenhouse gases. The Senate is poised to vote in June on legislation that would reduce U.S. emissions by 70 percent by 2050; the two Democratic senators running for president, Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.), back an 80 percent cut. The Republican presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), supports a 60 percent reduction by mid-century.

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), who is shepherding climate legislation through the Senate as chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, said the new findings "make it clear we must act now to address global warming."

"It won't be easy, given the makeup of the Senate, but the science is compelling," she said. "It is hard for me to see how my colleagues can duck this issue and live with themselves."

James L. Connaughton, who chairs the White House Council on Environmental Quality, offered a more guarded reaction, saying the idea that "ultimately you need to get to net-zero emissions" is "something we've heard before." When it comes to tackling such a daunting environmental and technological problem, he added: "We've done this kind of thing before. We will do it again. It will just take a sufficient amount of time."

Warming may continue despite CO2 cuts
Until now, scientists and policymakers have generally described the problem in terms of halting the buildup of carbon in the atmosphere. The United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change framed the question that way two decades ago, and many experts talk of limiting CO2 concentrations to 450 parts per million (ppm).

But Caldeira and Oregon State University professor Andreas Schmittner now argue that it makes more sense to focus on a temperature threshold as a better marker of when the planet will experience severe climate disruptions. The Earth has already warmed by 0.76 degrees Celsius (nearly 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. Most scientists warn that a temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) could have serious consequences.

Schmittner, lead author of a Feb. 14 article in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, said his modeling indicates that if global emissions continue on a "business as usual" path for the rest of the century, the Earth will warm by 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. If emissions do not drop to zero until 2300, he calculated, the temperature rise at that point would be more than 15 degrees Fahrenheit.

"This is tremendous," Schmittner said. "I was struck by the fact that the warming continues much longer even after emissions have declined. . . . Our actions right now will have consequences for many, many generations. Not just for a hundred years, but thousands of years."

While natural cycles remove roughly half of human-emitted carbon dioxide from the atmosphere within a hundred years, a significant portion persists for thousands of years. Some of this carbon triggers deep-sea warming, which keeps raising the global average temperature even after emissions halt.

Researchers have predicted for a long time that warming will persist even after the world's carbon emissions start to fall and that countries will have to dramatically curb their carbon output in order to avert severe climate change. Last year's report of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said industrialized nations would have to cut emissions 80 to 95 percent by 2050 to limit CO2 concentrations to the 450 ppm goal, and the world as a whole would have to reduce emissions by 50 to 80 percent.

Glimpse into the distant future
European Union Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas, in Washington last week for meetings with administration officials, said he and his colleagues are operating on the assumption that developed nations must cut emissions 60 to 80 percent by mid-century, with an overall global reduction of 50 percent. "If that is not enough, common sense is that we would not let the planet be destroyed," he said.

The two new studies outline the challenge in greater detail, and on a longer time scale, than many earlier studies. Schmittner's study, for example, projects how the Earth will warm for the next 2,000 years.

But some climate researchers who back major greenhouse gas reductions said it is unrealistic to expect policymakers to think in terms of such vast time scales.

"People aren't reducing emissions at all, let alone debating whether 88 percent or 99 percent is sufficient," said Gavin A. Schmidt, of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. "It's like you're starting off on a road trip from New York to California, and before you even start, you're arguing about where you're going to park at the end."

Brian O'Neill of the National Center for Atmospheric Research emphasized that some uncertainties surround the strength of the natural carbon cycle and the dynamics of ocean warming, which in turn would affect the accuracy of Caldeira's modeling. "Neither of these are known precisely," he said.

Although computer models used by scientists to project changes in the climate have become increasingly powerful, scientists acknowledge that no model is a perfect reflection of the complex dynamics involved and how they will evolve with time.

Still, O'Neill said the modeling "helps clarify thinking about long-term policy goals. If we want to reduce warming to a certain level, there's a fixed amount of carbon we can put into the atmosphere. After that, we can't emit any more, at all."

Caldeira and his colleague, H. Damon Matthews, a geography professor at Concordia University in Montreal, emphasized this point in their paper, concluding that "each unit of CO2 emissions must be viewed as leading to quantifiable and essentially permanent climate change on centennial timescales."

Steve Gardiner, a philosophy professor at the University of Washington who studies climate change, said the studies highlight that the argument over global warming "is a classic inter-generational debate, where the short-term benefits of emitting carbon accrue mainly to us and where the dangers of them are largely put off until future generations."

When it comes to deciding how drastically to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, O'Neill said, "in the end, this is a value judgment, it's not a scientific question." The idea of shifting to a carbon-free society, he added, "appears to be technically feasible. The question is whether it's politically feasible or economically feasible."

Focus that Nation at Williams College Feb. 5

Focus the Nation is a national teach-in designed to foster dialogue on the solutions to global warming. On the eve of the United States presidential primaries, Focus the Nation is also an effort to urge politicians to address climate change and advance solutions to it. Across the country, over 1000 colleges, universities, businesses, and religious institutions are gathering to act upon what is quickly becoming one of the most critical issues the world faces today. …

FOCUS THE NATION
Tuesday, February 5, 2008

PARESKY ACTION CENTER: 11:00 a.m.-1:30 p.m.

Come to Baxter Hall in the Paresky Center to connect with real opportunities to stop global warming and create a bright and sustainable future. Opportunities include calling your congressmen about pending legislation, learn about what students are doing on campus, and register to vote.

WORKSHOPS: 11:20 a.m.–3:50 p.m.

11:20 a.m.–12:35 p.m.

LOCAL INITIATIVES PANEL From implementing the Williamstown Climate Action Plan to making homes more environmentally friendly with cutting-edge technology, many Williamstown residents are taking action against global warming. Come and learn about both the many ways people are addressing climate change in our town and what you can do to make a difference!
Panel speakers include: Jane Allen (Williamstown COOL Committee), Hank Art (Samuel Fessenden Clarke Professor of Biology), and Craig Robertson (J Craig Robertson Building)
Brooks-Rogers Recital Hall

1:10–2:25 p.m.

BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES: GREEN INNOVATION IN THE INSURANCE AND MARKETING INDUSTRIES Travelers Insurance and Dwell Creative are both renowned for creating business opportunities within the emerging markets. Renowned for creativity and style in green marketing, Rooks will discuss his company's vision for the emerging market. Travelers is the first national insurance discount of 10% for hybrid drivers, providing incentive for individuals to minimize their impact on the environment and is taking significant other measures to develop incentive based climate change solutions.
Speakers include: Lace Garbatini (Travelers Insurance, National Director) and John Rooks (Dwell Creative, President)
Paresky Theater (L02)

THE FIGHT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE From urban to rural areas, many groups of people within America are fighting environmental injustice (when members of disadvantaged, minority, or other groups suffer disproportionately from environmental risks and hazards). Come see why environmental injustice is one of the biggest concerns facing America today, and what certain organizations, such as the Sustainable South Bronx, and Coal River Mountain Watch are doing to empower citizens to stand up for a clean and just future.
Speakers include: Dwaine Lee (Sustainable South Bronx, Project Manager), Lorelei Scarbo (Coal River Mountain Watch), and Bob Kincaid (Coal River Mountain Watch)
Brooks-Rogers Recital Hall

2:35–3:50 p.m.

SUSTAINABLE DESIGN WORKSHOP This workshop will address how architects around the world, including at Williams College, are minimizing the negative environmental impact of buildings. The North and South Academic buildings currently under construction will be certified as green buildings thanks to the innovation of their architects.
Speakers include: Lee Clark (Bohlin Cywinski Jackson)
Brooks-Rogers Recital Hall

THE GRASSROOTS GROUNDSWELL Youth are leading the charge in the United States and across the world to push for bold and positive global warming solutions. Using innovative online tools, passionate organizing work and expanding social networks, students are building state and regional coalitions to coordinate action, as well as organizing massive days of action at thousands of locations across the country. Come learn about some of the various environmental grassroots organizations, what they are already doing to affect change, and how you can help.
Speakers include: Will Bates (Bali Youth delegate and Step-it-Up National Organizer) and Morgan Goodwin '08 (Masss Youth Climate Action representative)
Paresky Theater (L02)

TOWN HALL FORUM 4:00-5:30 p.m.

Come discuss Williams College's plans for sustainability with the administration. In this open forum, we will hear about what the college is doing and have the opportunity to share our visions for the future.
Introduction: President Schapiro.
Panelists: Steve Klass (Vice President for Operations), Bill Lenhart (Provost and Treasurer), Karen Merrill (Dean of the College), Irene Addison (Associate Vice President for Facilities and Auxiliary Services), Stephanie Boyd (Acting Director of the Zilkha Center for Environmental Initiatives).
Moderators: Sarah Gardner (Associate Director of the Center for Environmental Studies), Amy Johns (Environmental Analyst)
Brooks-Rogers Recital Hall

FOCUS THE NATION LECTURE 8:00-9:30 p.m.

Christopher Flavin, President of the Worldwatch Institute will give a lecture "CLIMATE OF HOPE: THE PATH TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY"
Chapin Hall

Worldwatch Institute President Chris Flavin to be Keynote Speaker at Williams' National Day for Climate Action

WILLIAMSTOWN, Mass., Jan. 30, 2008 -- Tuesday, Feb. 5 will see a series of events at Williams as part of Focus the Nation, a national day for climate action. Focus the Nation was founded by Eban Goodstein, a Williams alumnus.

At Williams, the event will center around a series of workshops and town hall lectures to engage the community on climate change issues. The events are free and the public is invited.

On Tuesday, at 4 p.m. in Brooks-Rogers Recital Hall, President Morton Owen Schapiro, Dean Karen Merrill, and a number of representatives from the college's administration, facilities, and sustainability office will participate in a Town Hall Forum moderated by Sarah Gardner, associate director, and Amy Johns, environmental analyst, at the college's Center for Environmental Studies.

Later, at 7:30 p.m. in Chapin Hall, Chris Flavin, President of the Worldwatch Institute, a think tank focused on sustainability policy and technology, will present the keynote address "Of Hope: The Path to a Low-carbon Economy."

Flavin, a Williams alumnus, is actively engaged in international climate change and energy policy discussions. He participated in the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the Climate Change Conference in Kyoto, and the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg. Flavin appears often on radio and television, including the BBC, CNN, NPR, Voice of America, and PBS' "Newshour," and has written for publications including The New York Times, Technology Review, and Time Magazine.

In addition, during the day, there will be workshops by the Williamstown COOL (Carbon dioxide Lowering) Committee, on issues such as West Virginia Mountaintop Removal and green automobile technology; Will Bates, a youth delegate to last December's United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali is scheduled to speak. For a complete schedule of the day's events, go to www.williams.edu/home/focus/FTN/

Focus the Nation is designed as a national teach-in to draw attention towards political engagement and action on the issue of global warming. The group's view towards global warming -- that it "is happening and that human beings are causing it," and that "as citizens we have a moral duty to consider this an issue because it concerns the future well being of our families and our country" -- informs their political approach. Focus the Nation "provides an opportunity to engage political candidates from across the country and at all levels of government in campus-based, non-partisan discussions of climate solutions."

The Williams event is a joint project of the Center for Environmental Studies, the Thursday Night Group, and the Zilka Center.

***
For building locations on the Williams campus, please consult the map outside the driveway entrance to the Security Office located in Hopkins Hall on Main Street (Rte. 2), next to the Thompson Memorial Chapel, or call the Office of Public Affairs (413) 597-4277. The map can also be found on the web at www.williams.edu/home/campusmap/

Coal Power Goes on Trial Across U.S.

Charlie Riedel / AP
updated 4:26 p.m. CT, Mon., Jan. 14, 2008
BILLINGS, Mont. - In federal and state courtrooms across the country, environmental groups are putting coal-fueled power plants on trial in a bid to slow the industry's biggest construction boom in decades.

At least four dozen coal plants are being contested in 29 states, according to a recent Associated Press tally. The targeted utilities include giants like Peabody Energy and American Electric Power down to small rural cooperatives.

From lawsuits and administrative appeals against the companies, to lobbying pressure on federal and state regulators, the coordinated offensive against coal is emerging as a pivotal front in the debate over global warming.

"Our goal is to oppose these projects at each and every stage, from zoning and air and water permits, to their mining permits and new coal railroads," said Bruce Nilles, a Sierra Club attorney who directs the group's national coal campaign. "They know they don't have an answer to global warming, so they're fighting for their life."

Industry representatives say the environmentalists' actions threaten to undermine the country's fragile power grid, setting the stage for a future of high-priced electricity and uncontrollable blackouts.

"These projects won't be denied, but they can be delayed by those who oppose any new energy projects," said Vic Svec, vice president of the mining and power company Peabody Energy.

While observers say forecasts of power grid doom are exaggerated, the importance of coal — one of the country's cheapest and most abundant fuels — is undeniable.

Coal plants provide just over 50 percent of the nation's electricity. They also are the largest domestic source of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, emitting 2 billion tons annually, about a third of the country's total.

The score so far
Environmental groups cite 59 canceled, delayed or blocked plants as evidence they are turning back the "coal rush." That stacks up against 22 new plants now under construction in 14 states — the most in more than two decades.

Mining companies, utilities and coal-state politicians promote coal in the name of national security, as an alternative to foreign fuels. With hundreds of years of reserves still in the ground, they're also pushing coal-to-diesel plants as a way to sharply increase domestic production.

The outcome of the fight over coal could determine the nation's greenhouse gas emissions for years to come, said Gregory Nemet, assistant professor of public affairs at the University of Wisconsin.

"It's pretty much irreversible," Nemet said. "Once a coal plant is built, it will last 50 years or so."

But in opposing coal projects across the board, environmentalists risk hobbling more advanced coal plants that could rein in at least some of those emissions, Nemet said. He added that rising demand for electricity means more power "has to come from somewhere."

"There's too much pressure — in terms of energy independence and the inexpensiveness of that resource — to not use that coal," Nemet said.

One of the latest challenges to a utility came in the heart of coal country — Montana, which boasts the largest coal reserves in the nation.

On Friday, a state panel refused to rescind an air-quality permit it had granted for a plant proposed for the Great Falls area by Southern Montana Electric, despite concerns about the plant's carbon dioxide emissions. The 250-megawatt plant is projected to emit the equivalent of 2.8 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, as much as a half-million vehicles.

The Montana Environmental Information Center, which had asked the panel to review the permit, vowed to appeal the ruling.

Nilles said the Sierra Club spent about $1 million on such efforts in 2007 and hopes to ratchet that figure up to $10 million this year.

Meanwhile, coal interests are pouring even more into a promotional campaign launched by the industry group Americans for Balanced Energy Choices. It spent $15 million last year and expects to more than double that to $35 million in 2008, said the group's director, Joe Lucas.

Funding for the group comes from coal mining and utility companies such as Peabody and railroads that depend on coal shipments for a large share of their revenues.

Peabody's Svec acknowledged a rush to build new plants, but denied the goal was to beat any of at least seven bills pending before Congress to restrict carbon dioxide emissions — a charge leveled by some environmentalists.

Rather, he said, the construction boom is driven by projections that the country will fall into a power deficit within the next decade if new plants are not built.

Industry attorney Jeffrey Holmstead said that could lead to a future of rolling blackouts as the economy expands and electricity consumption increases. Holmstead was in charge of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's air program during the first five years of the current Bush administration.

The power deficit cited by industry officials is based on projections from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. NERC vice president David Nevius said his group is "neutral" on what kind of plants should be built to meet rising demand.

"We're not saying the lights will go out. We're just saying additional resources are needed," Nevius said. "We don't say coal over gas over wind over solar."

600-plus plants now
Utilities currently burn more than 1 billion tons of coal annually in more than 600 plants. Over the next two decades, the Bush administration projects coal's share of electricity generation will increase to almost 60 percent.

That projection held steady in recent months even as courts and regulators turned back, delayed or asked for changes to plants in at least nine states.

Other projects in Utah, Texas, Wyoming, Florida and several other states have been abandoned or shelved.

Some were canceled over global warming concerns. Utilities backed off others after their price tags climbed over $1 billion due to rising costs for materials and skilled labor.

Environmental opposition to coal plants was galvanized by a U.S. Supreme Court decision in April that said carbon dioxide is a pollutant open to regulation.

The case, Massachusetts vs. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, involved vehicle emissions. But environmentalists aim to use the decision as a fulcrum to leverage regulators to take a harder line on greenhouse gases in several emerging power plant disputes.

The result could serve as an early barometer of the reach of the Supreme Court ruling.

More tests of the two sides' arguments are certain. Industry groups say at least 15 coal-fired power projects are nearing the end of the approval process and could soon start construction.

Antarctica Losing Ice at Alarming Rate

By Marc Kaufman
updated 3:18 a.m. CT, Mon., Jan. 14, 2008
WASHINGTON - Climatic changes appear to be destabilizing vast ice sheets of western Antarctica that had previously seemed relatively protected from global warming, researchers reported yesterday, raising the prospect of faster sea-level rise than current estimates.

While the overall loss is a tiny fraction of the miles-deep ice that covers much of Antarctica, scientists said the new finding is important because the continent holds about 90 percent of Earth's ice, and until now, large-scale ice loss there had been limited to the peninsula that juts out toward the tip of South America. In addition, researchers found that the rate of ice loss in the affected areas has accelerated over the past 10 years -- as it has on most glaciers and ice sheets around the world.

"Without doubt, Antarctica as a whole is now losing ice yearly, and each year it's losing more," said Eric Rignot, lead author of a paper published online in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The Antarctic ice sheet is shrinking despite land temperatures for the continent remaining essentially unchanged, except for the fast-warming peninsula.

The new findings come as the Arctic is losing ice at a dramatic rate and glaciers are in retreat across the planet. At a recent annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union, Ohio State University professor Lonnie Thompson delivered a keynote lecture that described a significant speed-up in the melting of high-altitude glaciers in tropical regions, including Peru, Tibet and Mount Kilimanjaro in Kenya.

Thompson, who has studied the Quelccaya glacier in the Peruvian Andes for 30 years, said that for the first half of that period, it retreated on average 20 feet per year. For the past 15 years, he said, it has retreated an average of nearly 200 feet per year.

"The information from Antarctica is consistent with what we are seeing in all other areas with glaciers -- a melting or retreat that is occurring faster than predicted," he said. "Glaciers, and especially the high-elevation tropical glaciers, are a real canary in the coal mine. They're telling us that major climatic changes are occurring."

The cause, Rignot said, may be changes in the flow of the warmer water of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current that circles much of the continent. Because of changed wind patterns and less-well-understood dynamics of the submerged current, its water is coming closer to land in some sectors and melting the edges of glaciers deep underwater.

"Something must be changing the ocean to trigger such changes," said Rignot, a senior scientist with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "We believe it is related to global climate forcing."

Rignot said the tonnage of yearly ice loss in Antarctica is approaching that of Greenland, where ice sheets are known to be melting rapidly in some parts and where ancient glaciers have been in retreat. He said the change in Antarctica could become considerably more dramatic because the continent's western shelf, an expanse of ice and snow roughly the size of Texas, is largely below sea level and has broad and flat expanses of ice that could move quickly. Much of Greenland's ice flows through relatively narrow valleys in mountainous terrain, which slows its motion.

‘Frightening’ possibility
The new finding comes days after the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the group's next report should look at the "frightening" possibility that ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica could melt rapidly at the same time.

"Both Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheet are huge bodies of ice and snow, which are sitting on land," said Rajendra Pachauri, chief of the IPCC, the United Nations' scientific advisory group. "If, through a process of melting, they collapse and are submerged in the sea, then we really are talking about sea-level rises of several meters." (A meter is about a yard.) Last year, the IPCC tentatively estimated that sea levels would rise by eight inches to two feet by the end of the century, assuming no melting in West Antarctica.

The new Antarctic ice findings are based on mapping of 85 percent of the continent over the past decade using radar data from European, Japanese and Canadian weather satellites. Previous studies had detected the beginning of ice loss in West Antarctica and substantial loss along the peninsula, but the current research found significantly greater changes.

Rignot and his team found that East Antarctica, which holds a majority of the continent's ice, has not experienced the same kind of loss -- probably because most of the ice sits atop land rather than below sea level, as in the west. In several coastal areas of East Antarctica, however, small but similar losses have been detected, he said.

In all, snowfall and ice loss in East Antarctica have about equaled out over the past 10 years, leaving that part of the continent unchanged in terms of total ice. But in West Antarctica, the ice loss has increased by 59 percent over the past decade to about 132 billion metric tons a year, while the yearly loss along the peninsula has increased by 140 percent to 60 billion metric tons. Because the ice being lost is generally near the bottom of glaciers, the glacier moves faster into the water and thins further, as a result. Rignot said there has been evidence of ice loss going back as far as 40 years.

Study: Northeast Winters Warming Fast

By MICHAEL HILL, Associated Press Writer Sun Jan 13, 3:37 AM ET
ALBANY, N.Y. - Earlier blooms. Less snow to shovel. Unseasonable warm spells. Signs that winters in the Northeast are losing their bite have been abundant in recent years and now researchers have nailed down numbers to show just how big the changes have been.

A study of weather station data from across the Northeast from 1965 through 2005 found December-March temperatures increased by 2.5 degrees. Snowfall totals dropped by an average of 8.8 inches across the region over the same period, and the number of days with at least 1 inch of snow on the ground decreased by nine days on average.

"Winter is warming greater than any other season," said Elizabeth Burakowski, who analyzed data from dozens of stations for her master's thesis in collaboration with Cameron Wake, a professor at the University of New Hampshire's Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space.

Burakowski, who graduated from UNH in December, found that the biggest snowfall decreases were in December and February. Stations in New England showed the strongest decreases in winter snowfall, about 3 inches a decade.

There were wide disparities in snowfall over the eight-state region, with average totals ranging from 13.5 inches at Cape May, N.J., to 137.6 inches at Oswego, N.Y. Some stations on the Great Lakes, where lake-effect storms are common, showed an increase.

The reduction in days with at least an inch of snow on the ground was the most pronounced at stations between 42 and 44 degrees latitude — a band that includes most of Massachusetts, a thick slice of upstate New York and southern sections of Vermont and New Hampshire.

Burakowski cites two likely causes for the reduction in so-called snow-covered days: higher maximum temperatures and "snow-albedo feedback," in which less snow cover to begin with allows more sunshine warmth to be absorbed by the darker ground, making it less conducive to snow cover.

The research has yet to appear in a peer-reviewed journal, though meteorologists who have studied long-term climate trends said the observations appear to be in line with other research.

Richard Heim of the National Climatic Data Center looked at trends in snowfall totals nationwide from 1948 to 2006 and found that patterns varied regionally and seasonally. For the Northeast in winter, he found totals mostly decreasing along coastal areas, with an increasing trend along the Great Lakes. Art DeGaetano, of the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University, said regions around New York state have recorded negative trends in snowfall since 1970.

DeGaetano cautioned that snowfall totals can vary a lot from year to year. Last month, for example, snow totals were well above average for December across much of the Northeast.

Ski center operators also have noticed an incremental increase in temperatures over the decades, said Parker Riehle, president of the trade association Ski Vermont, but he echoed DeGaetano's point that snow totals have gone up and down.

"We've seen some erratic winters in recent years," Riehle said. "The mood swings of Mother Nature, perhaps, are deeper than they used to be."

But while ski slopes can fire up snow-making guns to compensate for lack of flurries, snowmobilers and cross-country skiers have complained about later starts and fewer trails covered with snow.

Cross-country skiers never even get in the right frame of mind during some winters, said Mark Booska of the Hudson Valley Ski Club.

"They look out their window and they're not thinking skiing," he said.

Convert to Sustainable Living

Learn How to Convert to Sustainable Living

Williamstown, MA – The Williamstown “COOL” (CO2 Lowering) Committee invites the community to come learn about things that everyone can do to fight climate change. This two-part event will begin with a potluck supper at 6 pm, speaker and program at 7 pm. Gatherings will be held on November 14 and 28 at the First Congregational Church in Williamstown.

On the 14th, New Yorker columnist Elizabeth Kolbert will introduce an initiative aimed at getting people to look at their own habits and take a “COOL Challenge” to reduce their carbon emissions. Matt Barron, a Williams College student, will explain how to get started. There will be time for discussion and questions.

On November 28th, participants will share the results of their “carbon footprint calculations” and the changes they are making. Nancy Nylen, Associate Director of the Center for Ecological Technology will be on-hand to share resources and answer questions about how to implement changes you would like to make in your home and your lifestyle to address climate change.

Williamstown is a member of Cities for Climate Protection and has an action plan to reduce CO2 emissions 10% below 2002 levels by 2010. The COOL Committee is a group of concerned citizens working to implement the town’s plan through education and activism. For more information visit: www.coolwilliamstown.org

The First Congregational Church, United Church of Christ, is located at 906 Main Street (Rt. 2) in Williamstown, MA. The church is fully handicap accessible. Parking is available immediately behind the church off of Chapin Hall Drive.

For more information about these events call the Church Office at 413-458-4273 or Wendy Penner at 413-458-4708.